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ASML Shares Tumble 16% on Weakening China Sales Forecast

Tech market update: 5-minute read.

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TECH MARKET UPDATE

China plans to raise an additional $850 billion through special treasury bonds over the next three years to strengthen fiscal stimulus and stimulate economic activity. However, lack of specifics disappoints investors. The anticipated funds will help manage local government debts, support underprivileged households and the real estate market, and boost state bank capital. This move is expected to stabilize economic growth, enhance the potential of meeting the government's growth targets, and combat the effects of the property sector's downturn.

Taiwanese tech companies are raising substantial funds to meet the growing demand for AI components, with offerings from chipmakers and hardware manufacturers driving share sales abroad to a $2.9 billion total. This trend is amplified by a sharp local stock market rebound, and expectations of continued high borrowing due to the chip production race. Major issuers include iPhone maker Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which plans to raise $700 million to increase server capacity.

Shares in Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML fell by 15.6% due to a disappointing sales forecast and weaker expected sales in China. The company forecasts net sales for 2025 to be between 30-35 billion euros, which is lower than previously projected. ASML cites that recovery in certain market segments is more gradual than anticipated, impacting its projected growth.

In 2024, net dollar retention for publicly traded software companies dropped from 113% to 108%, with 80% witnessing shrinkage in their NDR. Furthermore, average payback periods increased by 9 months to 44 months, meaning companies might not see positive contribution margins until their fourth customer year. In these tighter economic situations, lifetime value (LTV) becomes a determinant of investment in growth.

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